Tuesday, September 23, 2008

The remaining of Adam Smith’s legacy and worshipping false idols- US financial crisis , and Egypt

Adam Smith doctrines were revolutionary against the exploitive feudal system, where "Laissez faire et laissez passer” (Let do and let pass) was a connotation to individual freedom to work, trade, and more importantly, choose. A free market, in Smith’s mind, was a clear manifestation to equity and efficiency. This is crystallized by the utopia called “perfect competition”. The equality between marginal benefit, marginal cost and prices from one side, and prices giving signals to consumers and producers from the other side present a beautiful dynamic system for efficiency (or pareto optimal). As any undergraduate student of economics can tell, this mechanism maximizes consumer and producer surplus, firms make normal profits (or no economic (abnormal) profits) and consumers utility is maximized. In addition, equity comes clearer with the equality of marginal productivity and wages i.e. each worker is paid a wage that is equal to his addition to production. So, shortly and with no further complications of economics, under perfect competition, entrepreneurs get profits or return that is equal to the cost and risk incurred, and workers get wages that is equal to their contribution.

Underlying these principals lies the idea of invisible hands or keeping markets operate without any government intervention as this could lead to malfunctioning of the basic principles mentioned above, where prices would halt to give signals which will lead to inefficiencies, and social objectives become ahead of economic ones leading to inequity and inefficiencies as experienced by the public sector.

While there is no intention to challenge these principals here, I just wonder, how the current financial crisis in USA, the homeland of capitalists, reveals the discrepancy between what Adam Smith had in his mind and reality, between efficiency and equity as being professed and the exploitation not only of labor this time but also of citizens as well.

The way I see it, is that what remained from Adam Smith’s teachings are some worshippers to an idol called “free market”, thinking that through submitting to this idol they will get closer to the soul of the real god.

For those who worship this idol and perceive “government intervention” as the all-evil satan, I say the real gods are efficiency and equity.

This is exactly what happened in the current financial crisis in USA, for several months economists have been screaming out loud warning from a soon mortgage crisis and yet the government did not take any action. Does it have to be the collapse of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that initiate the intervention? Does it have to take down Lehman brothers and Morgan Stanly to get the government moving? According to Paul Krugman, the government should have intervened earlier after the burst of the housing bubble and the consequences of diminishing the capital of many financial institutions.

Not only had the government intervened after the collapse of the giants by bailing out their debts and write-offs, but also the bailout that initially amounts for $700 billion, and expected to reach $ 1 trillion, is financed from tax payers pockets. So, the giants were left all these years to make abnormal profits and when they fail, the average citizen bails them out!!! Why did not the government move earlier, where were the institutions that review and forecast the ability of them to sustain? Was this perceived as a critical violation to the bible of capitalism? So What??

Similar incidence occur in our part of the world, yesterday (22/9/2008) the minster of trade and industry issued a decree to import steel, and I wonder, having a market characterized by monopoly over iron billet causing steel prices to soar , was the decision of importation so hard to take? Wasn’t it an obvious short term solution to the surging prices? I also do not know what happened to the initiative taken earlier to establish steel and billet factories in Egypt, isn’t this a long term solution to the soaring prices or it’s a deal with the devil “government intervention” that scared them. The same story applies to cement industry in Egypt, a clear oligopoly case. Why did not the government allow for cement importation?

Needless to mention that monopoly and oligopoly are great violations to the essence of equity and efficiency, as in these cases, monopolists/ oligopolists maximize their profits i.e. achieving abnormal profits and decreasing consumer surplus.

Why it is always the consumer and tax payer benefit that is sacrificed?

Why factories and corporations use subsidized fuel and electricity? While the rational is that removing these subsidies will cause prices to soar? Isn’t there any mechanism to control prices and redirecting subsidy to those who need it? Again this is the essence of perfect competition, where firms are price takers not price makers, where no firm can make abnormal profits because of free entry.

Few months ago, the government declared a 30% raise in government employees’ wages, and to finance this raise, the government partially removed subsidies on fuel, which resulted in increasing prices, and combined with the international increase in food prices, inflation reached 25%.

From the first glance, one can say that government employees are left better off with additional 5% increase in income. But using simple mathematics refute this argument, as inflation increase in annually compounded pattern, while the increase in wages and the way it is structured in Egypt make wages to follow simple interest compounding or at most compounds every 5 years, not to mention the mediocrity of the wages in Egypt and level of incomes to meet with the ever increasing necessities of life.

It is understood that in theory perfect competition is an optimal solution, however, in practice; markets fail to achieve equity and efficiency. And here the government should step in and correct these inefficiencies. Needless to say, government should not create this failure by taking delayed decisions that come on the expense of the citizens.

I do not belong to the classical or neo-classical school of economic thought, but considering the current habit of making citizens the scapegoat, let me crave and dream of applying the neo-classical doctrines as being postulated, at least in their temple efficiency and equity are sought as the salvation and we are not slaves of “free market”.

12 comments:

Unknown said...

First of all, congrats for your blog. I suppose this will be educational for me :)

Regarding the US economy bit:
Well what I find ironic, is that technically speaking bush jr is a neocon; minimal state, specially when it comes to the private sector.
Now they are behaving like communists, buying up 3 of their biggest banking institutions !

doaasalman said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
doaasalman said...

Congratulation for your first blog you have a good to criticise using your financial thought
Best luck

Karim Badr said...

Thank you Dr. Doaa
thank you maged
regarding your comment maged, the move was essential, but the question is if this move was made earlier, with some government supervision over these sectors and these companyies, wouldn't the results be very different from today?
the market made some corrections, but in what way these corrections served the ultimate goal of societyé welfare ?

Unknown said...

Congrats karim for the blog. I liked it so much.

Regarding what you said about cement and steel industries in Egypt, I would like to add that Abdallah Shehata -in his paper "Impact of reducing energy subsidies on energy intensive industries in Egypt"- assumed different scenarios for the effect of reducing fuel and electricity subsidies on cement, steel, fertilizers and other energy intensive industries in Egypt. He showed that increasing cost of production by 100% due to subsidy reduction/removal will lead to cutting down the profit ratio of the cement industry from 39.3% to 29.2%, while the profit ratio of the steel industry will be reduced from 14.18% to 12.82%. Taking into account that there were no changes in output prices and hence the end consumers are unaffected, then where was the government to specify profit ceilings for these industries? Why are these industries subsidized that heavily while subsidy removal/reduction will not harm producers or consumers? Bureaucracy and corruption, as I see them, play the main role behind these abnormal profits earned by the giants. The government argues that restructuring the current subsidy policy in favor of the poor is very difficult and needs a lot of time to identify who should benefit from it. Is this problem, as the government sees, very difficult to solve in a country whose largest portion of population lives below the poverty line?

Karim Badr said...

yes ya dina
do you have any idea how much is the diiference between the upside and the relatively low side of the profit margins in both steel and cement (i mean in EGP)
but i go with you that the government can reach an agreement with these companies specially that the reduction in margins is trivial
also the fine imposed on some cement companies as a penalty for oligopoly is extremly trivial compared to their revenues or profits
i guess the government should review its priority list again

Unknown said...

I am yet to read your blog man but just to bug you, the plural of equilibrium is equilibria.
Abou Heikal

Karim Badr said...

thanks ya 3amoor
but both are correct
check merriam-webster
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/equilibrium

Ramez S. said...

Karim,

Great blog, love your train of thoughts. However I disagree with you that, had the US gov't intervened earlier, the situation today would have been any different. Since when is gov't efficient in anything !! This process of correcting the market shoulda been left to the credit rating agencies ( S&P, moody's etc..) who have truly failed the people by being very late in downgrading those failed banks therefore prolonging the bubble and making the burst a lot more painful than it should ve been.

Karim Badr said...

Thank you Ramez

well, i m sure credit rating agencies play an important role
but i have two comments,
first regarding these agencies, as you said they delayed their recommendations, but isn't this the case most of the times that analyst, due to non-technical & non-financial reasons, issue biased or delayed recommendations
either being afraid to issue such recommendations, or his/her mother company has a strong position in the company under study or will be afraid that he won't have access to this company's info. again

Second, it only takes the government to put regulation and laws concerning the limits of bad debt positions, the provisions, lending and borrowing criteria, .. so on
the credit agencies cannot claim that role

so, the government intervention could have been at least regulatory or even using monetary policy to control lending

Unknown said...

Congrats Karim on your blog, although I believe this "too" was a delayed step :)

I have one comment though:
The article structure is very well organized, however I got lost in the conclusion, since I'm not a specialist, I don't know what the classical and neo-classical schools of thought are.
Can you please shed more light on their ideas so that I can follow up more clearly?
Congrats again :)

Unknown said...

Karim:
Regarding the lower and upper profit levels of cement and steel industries in Egypt, I can say that according to Abdullah Shehata's paper, a subsidy reduction/removal so that the cost of production rises up by 100% will cause the profit of the cement industry to go down from 118 LE/Ton to 87.7 LE/Ton, while the profit of the steel industry will decline from 380 LE/ton to 343.5 LE/ton. I don't know however whether these after subsidy reduction/removal profits comparable with average profits such industries earn. Do you have any idea about that?